Documentation of Un-Reported Collisions Continues
How many collisions occur that never get officially reported? That fact can affect the reliability of collision statistics and what the public is told about roadway safety.
Gorski Consulting has been involved in a long term study of unreported collisions and incidents. Since 2009 a specific site in London, Ontario has been monitored and incidents of loss-of-control and evidence of collisions have been documented. This documentation has then been followed up with requests to the London City Police so that their collision data could be obtained and compared to our data.
Frame taken from video in October of 2009 showing a northbound car travelling on the wrong side of Clarke Road north of Fanshawe Park Road in London, Ontario. Markers in the northbound lane were used to examine speed and position of vehicles passing through the S-Curve.
In 2017 a series of five articles were uploaded to the Gorski Consulting website describing the details of our findings. These articles corresponded to the five years, 2011 to 2015 for which police data was available and compared. We recently made a second request to London Police and have received their additional data for the years 2016 and 2017. A sixth article in now close to being completed that discusses the findings from the 2016 data.
The trends from the previously announced analyses appear to be extending to the 2016 data. The main finding from this work is that at least 80% of collisions and loss-of-control incidents that occur at this site (Clarke Road north of Fanshawe Park Road) are not documented in the official police data.
This finding may have significant implications for a large amount of research that is based on police reported data. It is not the news that a large number of official researchers, municipal transportation agencies, and other government institutions want to read or have known. When 80% of the data regarding collision occurrence is unknown how can analyses of large data files be expected to be reliable? While it is claimed that estimates can be generated from what data is known using a variety of complex algorithms few independent experts actually know the details of these calculations to confirm that they are truly reliable.
The results from our research is inconvenient and therefore publicity of these results has gained some resistance in official circles.
Red Hill Valley Parkway – Reduced Maximum Speeds Increases Chaos
Posted maximum speeds along the Red Hill Valley Parkway in Hamilton have been reduced. Such an action may produce more safety problems.
Even before the discussions about the hiding of the Tradewinds Scientific report, the City of Hamilton should have been aware of the contents of the 2013 CIMA report which indicated “An average of more than 500 vehicles per day were recorded exceeding 140 km/h” on the Red Hill Valley Parkway (RHVP).
The northbound road segment of the Red Hill Valley Parkway between Greenhill Ave and King Street in Hamilton, Ontario is the most challenging safety issue on the Parkway.
The reduction of the speed limit from 90 km/h to 80 km/h will have very little effect on the average operating speed because of the perception that drivers have about what speed is safe. What is not recognized is that even CIMA misjudged the level of safety of the RHVP in their report of 2015 by assuming that the design speed was 110 km/h rather than the 90 km/h that was eventually revealed. Thus even these experts who conducted the safety audit of the RHVP were misled. What could one expect of the average driver who does not possess the expertise of experience and training to understand what is meant by “design speed”?
What is likely to happen now that the speed limit is reduced is that much of the speed control will be given to police who will be asked to enforce the limit. Police will be waiting on the roadsides with their radar/lidar equipment and pulling drivers over to give them a traffic citation. What is not recognized is what new dangers that will create.
With a much increased level of police presence along the sides of the RHVP there will be an increase in traffic chaos. Drivers attempting to follow the new “move over” laws will be attempting to change speeds and will be attempting to change lanes in the vicinity where the RHVP is already challenging with respect to it horizontal and vertical curves, along with it substandard surface friction. This chaos is likely to produce an increase in collisions – the very collisions that the police (and City of Hamilton) are attempting to reduce.
This is the reality that is not being publicized.
What the research suggests is that there is a need to improve the safety conditions of the RHVP at its most dangerous location. That location is the northbound travel from the Greenhill exit to the King Street exit. That should take first priority.
Rapid Notification System For Emergency Expressway Closures
Set-up of a collision rapid notification system for emergency expressway closures is needed to deal with instances where a collision leads to additional collisions. The need becomes obvious from examination of many expressway, multi-vehicle pile-up collisions.
As a recent example, a fatal, multi-vehicle pile-up occurred in the westbound lanes of Highway 401 at Foldens Road, near Ingersoll, Ontario, on the afternoon of February 13, 2019. Following the original crash at Foldens Road, two additional, multi-vehicle collisions occurred to the east of that site. One of the subsequent collisions occurred near the On-Route service centre is just east of Foldens Road. Another subsequent collision occurred east of Sweaburg Road. The distance between Foldens Road and Sweaburg Road is about 7.5 kilometres and this provided some indication of the possible length in the backup of traffic that occurred as a result of the original collision.
Site of the fatal, multi-vehicle pile-up in the westbound lanes of Highway 401 near Foldens Road near Ingersoll, Ontario. (Courtesy OPP Twitter)
The latest counts indicate that traffic volume approaches about 70,000 (AADT) in this vicinity of Highway 401 which is equipped with three-lanes in each direction. About half of the weekday traffic is composed of heavy trucks. It is not difficult to comprehend that a stoppage in traffic can quickly build several kilometres behind an initial collision site.
The problem is that sudden traffic stops from collisions are unexpected. There is no signage to warn of the upcoming stoppage. In contrast, when a stoppage is the result of road construction and maintenance signs are posted for several kilometres before reaching the actual construction site. This signage is often insufficient when a stoppage occurred further behind the commencement of the signage. Yet, some benefit is achieved in comparison to the emergency stoppage from an unexpected collision. Thus it is this sudden and unexpected stoppage of traffic, often in poor weather, with poor surface and visibility conditions, that is the problem that needs to be addressed.
The problem is that when a collision occurs the responders who are the first to arrive are not equipped to deal with the traffic stoppage. Those responders are there to deal with the immediate emergency of securing the lives of those injured in a crash. Although the vehicles of those responders may be equipped with sirens and emergency lighting that equipment is often of limited use. The typical height of a police cruiser or ambulance is well below the height of the typical tractor-trailer. So when a large number of tractor trailers come to stop close to each other a tall wall is created which can block most of the view of any emergency vehicles.
Large blocking or crash trucks with TC-12 arrow signs are often positioned at lane closures when sufficient time is available. But such arrangements are often much too slow to deal with the sudden stoppages that occur from unexpected collisions. The question becomes whether a system can be set up to respond with such blocking or crash trucks at an earlier time. This question should be posed particularly in those times and locations when collisions are more likely to occur. So for examine, the approach of a winter storm is likely to generate road surface and visibility deterioration which is likely to lead to crashes. So can such blocking and crash trucks be in a state of alert, much like firemen waiting for an alarm? Can more notification systems be set up along busy expressways such as Highway 401 that can display warnings such as “Stopped Traffic Ahead”? These are the types of considerations that need to be discussed to minimize the probability of additional collisions when vehicles come to be stopped for an initial collision.
Furthermore, Automatic Emergency Braking (AEB) is greatly needed at this time. Governments should do whatever they can to speed up the installation of this technology. AEB, if reliable, can do much to reduce collisions due to stopped traffic on expressways.
Red Hill Valley Parkway – The Public Deserves To Have Answers
“The Public Deserves To Have Answers”. These were the words of David Smosarski in a letter read at a meeting of the Hamilton City Council yesterday. His daughter Olivia had died in a May 5, 2015 crash on the Red Hill Valley Parkway almost two years after a lost 2013 report of Trandewinds Scientific was delivered to the City which described the inferior results of road surface friction testing on the Parkway.
Just as important in Smosarski’s letter were the following words: “To this day my family does not have any answers on why the car my daughter was a passenger in lost control that night”.
Northbound on the Red Hill Valley Parkway on approach to the King Street exit.
While the focus of the news media in Hamilton has been on the loss and subsequent finding of the Tradewinds report, there are broader issues that are relevant. These issues are exemplified by Mr. Smosarski’s words “…my family does not have any answers”. The tragedy of losing a daughter is one thing. But the Smosarski family has been victimized a second time by a system that has made “any answers” about how and why Olivia died very difficult to unravel. Part of the difficulty has been illuminated to the public by the tempest of the lost Tradewinds report. Otherwise the Smosarski family would be no different than many families who have suffered similar circumstances in silence. Their plight, as members of a very small group of citizens, has been of no official concern. Their voices have not been loud or strong enough to affect the future of any politicians. No organizations who are interested in goodwill, democracy and justice have ever raised a voice or helping hand. Likely because this small group of victimized families have never been heard of.
The victimization of the Smosarski family is not just due to the loss of the Trandewinds report. It is due to the overall secrecy that prevents them from knowing how Olivia died. This secrecy extends to issues about the release of information from the police investigation. It extends to the secrecy of what their insurance company has done about investigating the matter. It extends to the very high costs of obtaining legal advice and payment for investigation reports and experts. Costs for a private citizen to obtain a complete package of police investigation reports regarding a fatal collision run at about $9,000.00. Depending on the discretion of individual police forces some citizens cannot obtain any police reports regardless of what they may be willing to pay.
These are the broader facts that are unlikely to be discussed while the tempest of the lost Tradewinds report passes through the region.
David Smosarski deserves to have answers.
Automatic Emergency Braking Needed To Prevent Multi-Vehicle Crashes
Snow and poor visibility this past week has demonstrated the importance of speeding up the installation of automatic emergency braking (AEB).
Results of a multi-vehicle collision on Hwy 401 near Milton on February 13, 2019. (Courtesy of OPP Twitter)
A number of multi vehicle collisions have occurred on the 400-series expressways of southern Ontario this past week. These highways carry the most traffic volume at the highest speeds. Although weather forecasting can provide general information about conditions in a general area. However it is of minimal help for drivers who need more detailed information and about conditions in their immediate vicinity and where they are headed. Until vehicles of the future are equipped with weather and road surface “radar”, or technology that can warn drivers of the immediate conditions, weather related crashes will continue to evolve into dangerous, multi-vehicle pile-ups as unaware drivers crash into stopped vehicles from previous crashes.
Until vehicle-to-vehicle and vehicle-to-infrastructure expand into wide-spread and reliable systems, there is current technology available that could be the stop-gap solution. That technology is automatic emergency braking (AEB). AEB technology can “see” things ahead that drivers cannot, and automatic brake application could prevent or reduce the numbers of multi-vehicle pile-ups in poor visibility and poor road surface conditions.
This is particularly so in the wintry environment of high speed expressways that carry a large percentage of heavy truck traffic. What is often overlooked in that heavy trucks pose a particular problem in winter storms on high speed expressways. Firstly the drivers of these trucks cannot stop as quickly as drivers of passenger cars.
Inability to bring a heavy truck to a full stop is not the only relevant issue. But in many instances the drivers of light vehicles will “zig and zag” between these trucks at close range. Truck drivers cannot be continually applying light braking for every light vehicle that encroaches into their space. This results in many instances where a heavy truck is too close to a light vehicle. When heavy braking is required instability from collision avoidance can occur. Even if the truck driver has successfully avoided the first and immediate threat that may not be the end of the proble. A chain reaction of other emergency motions by other drivers to avoid truck now increase the probability that one of those drivers will be unsuccessful and a collision occurs. What happens next is often a game of rolling the dice as to whether this becomes a multi-vehicle, fatal consequence.
New technology might help if it could produce a warning or even prevent the driver of a light vehicle from encroaching into the dangerous space around a heavy truck. Whether such technology is possible could depend on the consequences from such a preventative action. Even if such a feature was feasible it would require some advanced logic and this is not likely to be available in a short time frame.
So AEB provides the most logical and quickest way to affect traffic in the immediate future. The question of its reliability in the vast number of unique collision scenarios must always be tested with adjustments made from that experience.
Highway 401 near Milton, February 13, 2019. How many of these multi-vehicle pile-ups could be avoided or reduced through AEB?
The installation of AEB on heavy trucks would be highly desirable. A heavy truck travelling a highway speed poses a large amount of kinetic energy that has the potential of causing a lot of damage and harm. So if that kinetic energy can be controlled at its earliest stage great benefits are possible. The results might be analogous to the safety benefits of early ride-down provided to occupants by seat-belts. Unknown to many, it is the early “catching” of an occupant’s body by a seat-belt, which is attached to the vehicle’s structure, that provides a great safety benefit to an occupant. So too with a heavy truck, where an early detection of a problem, resulting in a early reduction in kinetic energy through brake application, could provide the safety benefit, not only to the truck driver but to any occupants of other vehicles that could be struck by that heavy truck.
Thus reliable AEB cannot come quickly enough as it is likely to provide a substantial safety benefit by reduced the frequency and severity of multi-vehicle crashes on high speed expressways.
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