New Video Documentation on Highway 401 at Graham Road
Documentation of vehicle speeds and volumes was completed on April 20, 2020 in the westbound lanes of Highway 401 at Graham Road near West Lorne, Ontario.
The effect of the Covid-19 pandemic on traffic characteristics was documented yesterday, April 20, 2020, on HIghway 401 at Graham Road near West Lorne, Ontario. This documentation is subsequent to an article posted on the Gorski Consulting website showing the effects of the pandemic on the speeds and volumes of traffic at four sites in and near London, Ontario. Recent news releases by the City of Toronto and police forces in Ontario have indicated “200 per cent” increases in the numbers of stunt driving infractions in the midst of lower traffic volumes from the Covid-19 shut down. These reports will be evaluated through this further study of traffic.
The present documentation at Graham Road was conducted over a 2 hour session over a distance of 600 metres. A previous videotaping session was conducted on November 4, 2018 thus a comparison will be possible to show the differences in speeds and traffic volumes between the two sessions.
It is likely that the number and severity of collisions in Ontario have been affected by the changes in traffic. Eventually it is expected that the Province of Ontario will release data on these collision statistics and there will be questions as to how and why those data have changed. Thus the current data collections will help in examining that future research.
Speed and Traffic Volume Comparisons Under Covid-19
An example of Ontario police conducting a speed check from an overpass in response to news of higher numbers of speeding incidents.
A recent Global News article indicated that a City of Toronto news release indicated that there has been “…a 35 per cent increase in speeding tickets and an almost 200 per cent jump in stunt driving incidents compared to the same time last year”. Other news agencies have also reported similar information being released by police agencies in Ontario.
While this information may be accurate, there are some important, missing facts. Note that the article discusses numbers of tickets written by police but it does not indicate what the actual number of speeders was on the road. While the increased numbers of tickets may mirror the increased numbers of speeders we don’t actually know because no one has provided that information.
The City of Toronto possesses resources that monitor traffic volumes and speeds so it should have been simple for the City to include some of that data along with the “200 per cent increase” in their news release. But that was not done. Police and Ontario Ministry of Transportation officials also have those capabilities but they also have not provided any of their data.
As an example, if there were only 10 persons speeding at over 50 km/h above the speed limit a year ago, and if that number was raised to 20, that would be a 100 per cent increase. But clearly ten additional speeders is not a lot if we consider the millions of trips taken by drivers during a year. So it would be important to find out what that “200 per cent increase” is based on.
Gorski Consulting has continued to provide factual data on the effect of the Covid-19 pandemic on traffic in South-Western Ontario. Traffic studies were recently completed whereby volumes and speeds from previous years were compared to testing that was completed in late March and early April, 2020. Results are available from four test sites as noted below:
- Clarke Road north of Fanshawe Park Road.
- Hamilton Road West of Gore Road (in front of Hayward YMCA building).
- Highbury Ave south of Commissioners Road.
- Highway 401 at the Westminster Drive overpass.
Below is a figure of London, Ontario showing the locations of the four sites where testing was completed.
Locations of sites where testing was conducted.
The testing sites provide an important mix of roadway environments. There are two sites involving high speed expressways (Highbury and Highway 401). The Highbury site carries primarily urban traffic. The Highway 401 site carries a large amount of inter-provincial and international traffic. There are also two sites that are urban (Hamilton Rd) and semi-urban (Clarke Rd) arterial roadways.
The table below shows some comparisons between the testing and the sites.
Review of Traffic Volumes
The following sections provide some further explanations of the traffic volumes that were observed as well as general explanations of the testing at each site.
1. Clarke North of Fanshawe
View of the complex S-curve at the Clarke Road site.
The Clarke Road site is a complicated S-curve where testing has been ongoing since the fall of 2009. Thus there is data available from October 8, 2009 which has been included here. Documentations were made of northbound traffic only. A comparison was performed on October 16, 2019, or ten years after, and this was reported in previous Gorski Consulting articles. Finally, the most recent testing was performed on March 27, 2020 which is when the shut down from the Covid-19 pandemic was in effect. Thus we have results from two studies before the effects of the Covid-19 shut down.
The maximum posted speed for the Clarke Road site was 80 km/h. However, because the site is an S-curve the issues of importance revolved around the adherence of traffic to a speed advisory sign. In 2009 the advisory sign contained a “60 km/h” tab. That tab was changed in September 2019 to a “50 km/h” tab. From the testing of October 2009 and 2019 we advised that drivers seemed to be ignoring the advised speed as the average speed was much higher. The latest data from March, 2020 provides further information about how the Covid-19 shut down has affected traffic.
One way of looking at the traffic volume data is to look at the average volume passing the site every 10 minutes. These averages are noted below:
Oct 8-09 = 17.5 vehicles per every 10 minutes.
Oct 16-19 = 43.48 vehicles per every 10 minutes.
Mar 27-20 = 41.88 vehicles per every 10 minutes.
Thus there has been a large increase in traffic volume at the site over the previous 10 years and that increase was reversed between Oct 16-19 and Mar 27-20.
2. Hamilton Road West of Gore Road (Hayward YMCA)
View looking east along Hamilton Rd showing the westbound traffic that would approach the pedestrian crossing. There is a downgrade approaching the camera.
View looking west along the set of cones positioned at 50 metre intervals to document vehicle speeds. There is a downgrade toward the pedestrian crossing in the background.
The Hamilton Road site was examined because of an assignment we received in 2017 involving a pedestrian impact involving a westbound vehicle that occurred near a pedestrian crossing just west of the Hayward YMCA building. Videotaping was performed on September 18, 2017 to determine the average speed of westbound vehicles. Forty minutes of that videotape was analysed. Subsequently, on April 16, 2020 we conducted a similar videotaping session for 1 hour. This subsequent testing occurred during the time that the Covid-19 shut down should have been in effect.
The average number of vehicles travelling westbound every 10 minutes is noted below:
Sept 18-18 = 35.25 vehicles per every 10 minutes.
Apr 16-20 = 64.33 vehicles per every 10 minutes.
Looking at the above averages there is something peculiar. The April 16, 2020 data was obtained during the Covid-19 shut down so the traffic volume should have been substantially less than the volume on September 18, 2017. But the opposite has occurred. All the other sites in our studies have shown this drop in traffic volumes during the Covid-19 testing yet this site has not. An explanation is needed but it will not be examined at this time.
3. Highbury Ave South of Commissioners Road
View of the overall site on Highbury Ave.
View looking south along Highbury Ave from the overpass at Commissioners Road.
At the Highbury Ave site northbound vehicles were documented in both northbound lanes over a distance of 200 metres. The traffic volumes at 10 minutes intervals from both testing dates are shown below:
Nov 20-19 = 188.33 vehicles per every 10 minutes
Apr 7-20 = 98.67 vehicles per every 10 minutes.
There was an obvious and large drop in traffic volume during the Covid-19 shut down testing as compared to the testing conducted on November 20, 2019. This is in line with what was expected.
4. Highway 401 at Westminster Drive
View from December 2, 2018, showing a video camera positioned on the overpass of the Westminster Drive and pointing at westbound vehicles on Highway 401.
View from October 30, 2018, showing westbound traffic on Highway 401 where three lanes are merged into two at the Westminster Drive overpass.
The results from two, pre-Covid-19 sessions on the Highway 401 site are shown in the above table. The traffic volume data is reported with respect to the median lane only because that is where our focus was at the time of the analysis. The median lane is the one closest to the median. This is the site where three lanes converge into two so the right lane ends and merges with the middle lane.
During the session conducted on March 25, 2020 only the traffic volume was documented and not the vehicle speeds. The session was not prepared for documenting vehicle speeds because this takes considerably more time and effort.
With respect to the median lane, the average 10-minute volumes documented during two pre-Covid-19 sessions are noted below:
Oct 30-18 = 52.38 vehicles per every 10 minutes.
Dec 2-18 = 62.00 vehicles per every 10 minutes.
When comparing the effect of the Covid-19 shut down, there is data available from the traffic volume of all three westbound lanes, not just the median lane. This data is shown below. The data in the table below is taken from 2 hours of videotaping in each of the three sessions.
October 30, 2019 was a Tuesday while December 2, 2018 was a Sunday. It has been well documented that on weekends there is a large decrease in truck traffic and an increase in car and light truck traffic. This is reflected in the data. What should be obvious is that the session on March 25, 2020, which was a Wednesday, showed a large decrease in both heavy truck traffic and light vehicle traffic. Again, this is reflective of the effects of the Covid-19 shut down.
Review of Vehicle Speeds
The table below provides a comparison of the test sites with respect to the posted maximum speeds and the average observed speeds of the vehicles at each site.
As noted earlier, the emphasis of the analysis at the Clarke Road site was with respect to the speed advisory sign and not the posted maximum speed. Here there was a decrease in average speed on October 16, 2019 versus the testing ten years earlier on October 8, 2009.
One has to keep in mind that traffic volume has an effect on speed. When volumes reach critical levels they begin to reduce average speed on single-lane roadways because the travel speed becomes the speed of the slowest vehicle in a line of traffic. So one argument is that the reduced average speed on October 16, 2019 is related to the large increase in traffic volume in comparison to the testing ten years earlier.
There was a decrease in traffic volume between the Covid-19 testing of March 27, 2020 and the pre-Covid-19 testing of October 16, 2019. This could be one possible explanation why the average speed of vehicles increased in the Covid-19 session. This explanation is in line what we have seen that Hamilton Road and Highbury Ave sites.
The speed results at the Highbury site clearly show this result of lower traffic volumes and increased average speed. This was shown in a chart, attached in previous Gorski Consulting article, and reproduced below, showing how the speed of vehicles was increased from the pre-Covid-19 session on November 20, 2019, to the one during the Covid-19 shut down on April 7, 2020
The results from the Hamilton Road site are curious. They do not appear to be consistent with the other data with respect to traffic volume. Yet they are consistent with the observation that during the Covid-19 shut down there has been an increase in vehicle speeds.
The important point to be made is that the traffic volume almost doubled during the Covid-19 session of April 16, 2020 in comparison to the pre-Covid-19 session of September 18, 2017, yet the observed average speed of vehicles was slightly higher during the Covid-19 session. Note that on April 16, 2020 the average speed of observed vehicles was 58.76 km/h versus 58.23 km/h on September 18, 2017. The average speed should have dropped as a result of the higher traffic volume yet the opposite occurred. It also remains a mystery why there were so many more vehicles using this road during the Covid-19 shut down, as this is not what should be expected.
There has been no speed data collected at the Highway 401 site during the Covid-19 shut down. But we have included two previous sessions where speed data was collected at the site. These illustrate the point that the highest speeds of traffic are on this highway. The number of vehicles travelling well above the speed limit at this site put it in a league of its own. It may be necessary for us to conduct some further sessions on Highway 401 to see how the average speeds have changed in the wave of the pandemic.
The table below shows the number of speeding vehicles that have been documented at each of the four sites. Two sets of criteria have been used to select these speeders. A lower criterion involved selecting all those vehicles that were observed to be travelling 20 km/h or more above the posted maximum speed, or the advised speed. A stricter criterion was one where we noted how many vehicles were observed to be travelling at 30 km/h or more above the posted maximum speed, or the advised speed.
Because there were differences in the length of observation and the number of observations at each site the above table does not provide a clear way of comparison between the sites. Thus the next chart, below, breaks this data into percentages of the total of vehicles observed at each site.
This final table now gives us a chance to understand just how many drivers are likely travelling above the speed limit and how that has changed compared to the situation before the Covid-19 pandemic.
For example, at the Clarke Road site, there were more speeders 10 years ago and this fell during the October 19,2019 testing. But when the site was re-tested on March 27, 2020 the number of speeders rose again, such that 31.5 % of vehicles travelled 20 km/h above the advised speed and about 4.3 % travelling at more than 30 km/h above the advised speed. Thus this data would seem to support the conclusion that the number of speeders has increased as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic.
At the Hamilton Road site the data is particularly revealing. Even though the traffic volume almost doubled during the Covid-19 shut down testing of April 16, 2020, the number of speeders travelling 20 km/h or more above the speed limit rose from 2.13 % to 4.4 %. Never-the-less the number of speeders observed at this site was negligible. For example not a single vehicle was observed to travelling 30 km/h higher than the speed limit in the September 17, 2017 session and only 0.78 % of vehicles were observed to be travelling higher than this threshold in the April 16, 2020 session.
At the Highbury site there appeared to be a marked increase in the percentage of speeding vehicles. While the numbers travelling at 30 km/h or higher are too small to consider, those vehicles travelling at 20 km/h or higher than the speed limit rose from 1.95 to 9.12 %. That appears to be substantial.
And as stated before, the Highway 401 site shows much higher numbers of speeders even before the Covid-19 pandemic.
Overall, although our data seems to support that the percentage of speeders has increased during this time that the Covid-19 pandemic has been in effect, it is questionable whether these percentages have caused markedly more dangerous roadway environments. It is likely that the percentage of speeders travelling at extreme speeds are very few and small changes in these numbers may have allowed the City, as well as police agencies, to report that there has been a massive increase and a great increase in unsafe conditions has occurred.
The reason why the numbers of “stunt driving” infractions have increased dramatically cannot be fully explained without having more detailed information about police activities. One possibility is that the numbers of major collisions during the Covid-19 pandemic appear to have been reduced sharply as noted in the sharp reduction in the notifications by official news media about the occurrence of those collisions. When police are not tied up dealing with these serious collisions, and possibly many more minor collisions, their time is freed up to pursue the speeders that they previously had limited time to pursue. If that is the case then those officials reporting these statistics owe it to the public to provide this explanation.
It may also be that the increase in stunt driving at 50 km/h or more over the speed limit may be occurring on selected roads such as expressways. This is more likely as our data already shows that there is a very large percentage of drivers travelling 20 km/h or higher above the speed limit of 100 km/h. It is our observation that, in the distance of Highway 401 between London and Windsor the average speed of vehicles travelling the median (fast) lane was about 120 km/h before the pandemic.
Although no official has yet provided specific data, it seems likely that the number of serious collisions in Southern Ontario have been reduced during the Covid-19 shut down. Yet there appears to be rise in the number of vehicles travelling at excessive speed. This paradox may be an indication of the fact that travel speed alone is not the cause of many collisions. Rather it is the number of potential traffic conflicts that also need to be considered. Thus two isolated vehicles travelling at 130 km/h on Highway 401 pose a risk. But the same vehicles travelling at the same speed in the milieu of other vehicles travelling at 100 km/h pose an additional risk. Such additional risks are not taken into account when the public is told about the risks of collision causation.
Why is the Trumpet Section Impossible to Play With?
We’re all entrapped in our own homes. I understand that. But why should a band come marching through my neighbourhood and force me to listen to what they play? An irritating conductor with no sense of rhythm who loves trumpets above all else is in town. He has come and refuses to leave. Trumpets are OK. But the trumpets from this band are the loudest blowhorns. They cannot play with the rest of the band. They are out of step and cannot read the music before their eyes. I’m beginning to ask which is more irritating, this Corona virus or this Conductor with his impossible trumpets.
When will there be peace again in my neighbourhood?
What Was The Launch Speed Of This Polish Rocket?
This photo is (apparently) not a gimmick. It is the actual trajectory of a polish car that was recreated by a collision reconstructionist from a short video clip taken by bystander yesterday. The car reportedly struck a tree on the far side of the roundabout and then flew into the wall near, or of, a church in a town in Poland.
The video, which seems to have been taken by a bystander, has made the internet rounds and eventually made its way to the International Collision Reconstructionists (INCR) chat group. Seems some of our fellow associates have some time on their hands and have decided to estimate the vehicle’s launch speed. It is a common method of determining vehicle speed by examining the launch angle and flight distance. This is no different that artillery personnel who adjust the angle of a canon to direct a shell onto an enemy location. The particular reconstructionist who posted this photo is internationally known and experienced in the community but we will not post his name here due to the chat group’s confidentiality agreement. He, and perhaps others in the group, is working on a solution that will determine the vehicle’s speed. All for interest only. It is not known whether the driver survived but all things are possible.
Day-Dreaming Lessons on the Highway
Who is this imbecile!!
I get on the highway and, as luck would go, I end up behind a vehicle doing barely the speed limit, on rare occasions, but mostly and unmercifully below. The road is hilly and curved and unsafe to pass. I think to myself “What the hell, what are you doing?”. The vehicle is ancient but bright and shiny. Maybe a Cadillac. But before I can get in another thought I hear this roar of a tremendously large mosquito and to my left comes a flash of light which I quickly detect as an orange, 2-litre, Honda Civic, no muffler, music blaring out of the open right window, and some punk poking his head out and shouting something like “Muck Doo” before disappearing in the opposing lane over the next quiet hill. So I move on.
I begin to tap my fingers on the steering rim. What else to do at five kilometers an hour below the speed limit. Who is this imbecile?
As a driving instructor I begin to do the things one should never do. I begin to mind wander. The taillights ahead of me begin to fade away and the image of Socrates’ head appears saying “Know thyself”. And I recall that this is how I began. And then another image appears. It is Sigmund Freud, standing with a flashlight in the darkness and pointing his finger along a dark path that he has illuminated. But once I follow his advice and step on the path, he turns off his flashlight. Then begins a process of numerous stubbings of my toe and curses as I wander along the path in total darkness, encountering another something unexpected. And then the path disappears and the taillights re-emerge. How long was I day-dreaming? Socrates indicated what I should study and Freud showed me the path. Neither were very helpful once I began that journey.
Know Thyself
This day-dreaming is dangerous, and I of all people should know that. But at five kilometres below the speed limit, and a substantial distance to go, this is killing me. Back to taping my fingers on the steering wheel. Music, music might help.
So I turn on the radio. There I encounter The Celebrity making the speech of all speeches. His hippocracy is truly genuine. I’ve seen him before. The tail-lights fade out again as an image appears of the man and his speech. His name is “His excellency, the right-honourable, most-important, knower-of- all-things, Majesty of all things visible and invisible…He wears a tunic or a uniform. It is bespeckled with many shiny things, mostly medals. He has so many medals he even has one on his shoe – it announces his presence like a cowbell. Once again the image fades out and a new one appears. It is of a hippo in a Canadian lake. I wonder what a hippo could be doing in such a cold environment. Then back to the taillights and reality.
I came out on this Corona Virus day to do my essential grocery shopping and this is what I get. Five kilometres an hour below the speed limit. Who is this imbecile? I finally get closer to my destination. A small grocery shop with fancy things and no line-ups. That’s why I came. But to my amazement that Cadillac, or whatever it is, signals into the same parking lot. My God, is this my day or what? There are only two parking spots available, one behind the other. The Caddy pulls into the one closer to store marked “Handicap” and I pull in behind. Handicap, right. It’s probably someone taking advantage of the only parking spot left, and a pull-through at that. So now I get to see this imbecile. This moron who has taken up so much of my precious time. I’m going to sit in my seat until that imbecile comes out. I want to see who this is. And I wait and wait. Give me a break.
Finally a door begins to creak open. Slowly. A foot is seen, and the bottom of a long skirt to the ankle. A grey material. And out comes the rest of the body. Slowly. It is an old and tired frame. It is a grey-haired woman with glasses and a worn grocery bag. Once outside she pauses, looks both ways, as if she thinks she will be run over in the high-speed parking lot. And then my cynical self melts away. Ah, revelation. She is elderly.
Now I understand. She has stepped onto the stage for all to see. I am also near to that stage where I will be standing before a judgmental crowd with nothing important to say. I too will one day be the old man whose past means nothing to the future.
I follow the old woman into the store. I wander for some time then select the essential thing that I came for and then turn to the checkout. And there is that old lady again, in front of me. In the short space of time she has selected a bunch of stuff that weighs down on her frail frame and seems to be uncomfortable. For once she has to wait like I do. The line-up is short but it is still a line-up. I ask “Can I hold that for you?” She turns to me slowly with a small dry smile and nods appreciatively. We begin to talk.
The woman explains that she rarely goes out except when she has to. It’s not the Corona but it’s a fact of old age. Here 85-year-old husband is at home, mostly immobile. She goes out to get groceries once in a while and she gets as much as she can hold but she can’t hold a lot. So she is appreciative for my help. Her eyesight is not good, and her hearing is worse. But her groceries are essential to herself and her husband. They have lived in their home of 60 years. With each word my thoughts wander again as I recall my “imbecile” thoughts. Who is the true imbecile?
When we reach the checkout I help her unload. A large batch of potatoes, a cabbage, a vegetable with a “30% Off” sticker. And her cost is $11.05. She already had it in her hand before being asked.
I then place my item on the belt. It is one bag of “Miss Vickies” potato chips. The old lady looks at the bag. The cashier looks at the bag. I look at the bag. This was my essential item on this Corona day.
I walk with the old lady back to her car and place her purchases in her back seat. She smiles and says thank you before disappearing into the old fancy car. I get in my car and wait. She finally pulls out and I pull out after her. We both pull out together back onto that hilly, curvy highway. I could pass but I won’t. I feel honoured and privileged to be escorted all the long way home at five kilometres an hour below the speed limit.
I just stubbed my toe into something new and it hurt. But it woke me out of my silly day dreams.
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