Additional Cyclist Speed Documentations on Trafalgar Bike Trail In London
View of a northbound cyclist travelling on the City of London cycling trail near Trafalgar Road in May 2020.
The speed of cyclists on downgrades was previously reported in a Gorski Consulting article of October 8, 2018. That article examined three sites where substantial downgrades existed and it was demonstrated that cyclists generally coasted to high speeds. One of those sites, located south of Trafalgar Road, was particularly interesting because of its new construction and the challenging conditions that were created for cyclists and pedestrians.
On June 2, 2020 Gorski Consulting returned to Trafalgar site and conducted additional observations to explore the extent of the possible safety problems that might exist. Multiple video cameras were used to capture the speed of northbound cyclists on the trail as well as to explore any conflicts with pedestrians who also use the trail. The video will be analysed in the next week or two and an article is expected to be posted to the Gorski Consulting website with the results of the testing.
One Bad Decision By One Driver Can Lead To Death of Many Innocent Others
We have seen the scenario depicted above on numerous occasions. A slow-moving heavy truck and an impatient driver. The consequences of an error in this scenario could be higher when the truck is a tanker loaded with explosive cargo.
As shown below the pick-up driver has already entered into the no passing zone and the passing motion is not completed. What led to this result?
Miscalculation, misinterpretation, criminal negligence or a combination of all? Which is it? And how can it be prevented?
One of the solutions is to focus our attention on risky drivers rather than the population at large. Whether it be stunt driving at tremendous speed, high acceleration at inappropriate times and locations, or simply driving unpredictably, high risk drivers need to be identified and their actions monitored in a more focused manner than is currently taking place.
Nine Motorcyclists Killed in 18 Days of May
Averaging at least one motorcyclist fatality every two days is not a good record. But that is the strange Ontario reality during the Covid-19 Pandemic in this month of May. The following list represents some of those killed although it may be not complete.
- On May 1st the OPP reported that a pick-up truck collided with two motorcycles on Wellington Road 19 at the Sixth Line. One of the motorcyclists was killed.
- On May 3rd a 30-year-old female motorcyclist was killed at the intersection of Dingman Drive and Highbury Ave in south London. Apparently there was no other vehicle involved the collision.
- On May 4th, a 22-year-old male was killed when his motorcycle collided with a vehicle near Jalna Boulevard and Poplar Crescent in London.
- On May 12th, a motorcyclist died in a single vehicle collision on Tapscott Road and Melford Drive in Scarborough.
- On May 13th a motorcycle collided with an SUV at the intersection of Huron County Road 12nd Hydro Line Road near Seaforth. The motorcyclist died at the collision scene.
- On May 16th, a motorcycle collided with a car at the intersection of Creditview Road and Sandalwood Parkway in Brampton. The motorcyclist died at the scene.
- On May 16th a 60-year-old male motorcyclist was killed when he collided with an SUV on Sunset Drive near Wilson Ave in St Thomas.
- On May 17th a motorcyclist died when he was reportedly making a turn on Northey’s Bay Road in North Kawartha near Peterborough. No other vehicles were involved in the crash.
- On May 17th a motorcyclist was killed in a single vehicle collision on Perth Line 87 near Listowel.
Ontario statistics indicate that there were 67 motorcyclists killed in 2017 and 57 in 2018 but those numbers are based on “preliminary” data while the final numbers have still not been released.
According the the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration in the U.S. 5229 motorcyclists were killed in 2017 and 4985 in 2018. This change represented a 4.7% drop in fatalities. Early estimates for 2019 indicate that there was a 1% drop in fatalities in comparison to 2018.
Tools Have Changed But Collision Reconstruction Still Dependent On Detail, Quality of Thought and Integrity
How was this damage evidence created and what can it say about how the collision occurred? Give us some thoughts.
The caveman who worked harder at chiseling his stone into a smoother wheel was eventually rewarded with greater success. This idea has not changed in thousands of years, although the tools have.
Motor vehicle collision reconstruction may have been in existence for one hundred years but it took a long time to evolve. It was not until the middle of the 20th century that long-treasured wives’ tales began to be replaced with hard data and science. Science began rather simply with the use of momentum analysis, speed loss from skidding, free flight trajectory analysis, basic roadway design and signage and thoughts about how drivers process information. But as collisions caused more and more deaths and injuries governments decided to pay more attention and began creating agencies specifically focused to address the highway, the vehicle and the human behind the wheel. By 1966 the new National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) was formed in the U.S. and shortly afterward the similar Road Safety Branch of Transport Canada. Specialized Multi-Disciplinary Accident Investigation (MDAI) teams began popping up throughout North America funded by these federal agencies. Basic findings were uncovered. As an example, in 1974 a research paper by Kenneth Campbell enhanced the belief that vehicle crush and energy had a relationship that could be exploited and so an additional tool was added in speed and change-in-velocity analyses. Specialized computer reconstruction and simulation programs were developed through the 1970s, some of which exist to the present day. And by the 1980s, as computers and statistical programs began to take hold, the specialized MDAI investigations were being replaced by statistically-based sampling regimes. Surveying tools such as total stations were added and then replaced by laser scanners and drones. Event Data Recorders began to be installed by the late 1990’s. So tools have certainly changed.
Professional collision reconstruction may see another great shift as vehicles and the roads on which they ride become integrated, talking to each other and as artificial intelligence begins to monitor and document every detail of motion. As this process develops there are still many problems that need to be ironed out. In the meantime, as the tools have changed the process of creating a good reconstruction of a motor vehicle incident still relies on the basics that applied even before there were motor vehicles on the road: Detail, Quality of Thought and Integrity.
Detail means that there is no such thing as shortcuts. There are extremely few brilliant masterminds who know everything and therefore have the right to skip the details. Detail means that you gather the evidence and data with a fine-toothed comb, not missing things because they are unlikely to matter. While collisions are unique, their unravelling is not. The collision that occurred today likely occurred thousands of times before today. One needs to recognize that past collisions and their data can do much to help the reconstructionist on a current investigation. Thus one does not gather evidence just to solve a current case. One gathers evidence so that it can be used as a basis for understanding a future incident. When one gathers a sufficient quantity of detail it soon becomes apparent that the collision is a member of a group of previous collisions, assuming that all those previous collisions have also been documented with sufficient detail. When insufficient detail is gathered it not only prevents the solution of the current incident, it also becomes a lost data point that can no longer be matched to the numerous similar collisions of the past. And the investigation becomes useful to no one.
The next cornerstone of collision reconstruction is Quality of Thought. Reconstruction is not a process of finding answers, it is a process of knowing the questions to be asked. Any computer can spill out vast amounts of “answers” but it may be useless in providing the higher order of reasoning that is only available to the human species. Humans are uniquely capable of this higher order of thought. An example of this is the comparison between the quick response that vehicular computers can make to dangers that may be unseen by a human driver, yet they have difficulty distinguishing what is a legitimate threat in complex/unique environments. What is needed is the ability to recognize that an important question has not been brought forward, and has not been answered and the determination to find the answer to that question. Sometimes limits in Quality of Thought can be improved with formal training and experience however sometimes it cannot. And the subject rarely appreciates when that is the case. In a way we all suffer from a limited psychosis in that we do not know about the things that we do not know.
The final cornerstone of collision reconstruction is Integrity. This word is used to cover a wide spectrum of issues. Our ability to send probes to Mars, to make various medical breakthroughs and reduce many hazards of our complex world is owed to the fact that we are motivated to finding those solutions. Yet in the realm of motor vehicle collision reconstruction we are often not motivated to achieve those important successes. Our own intelligence works against us when the truth is perceived as a threat to us, or when a lie is to our benefit. Regrettably motor vehicle collisions are tied to the recovery fault. Even those investigations that claim to be purely fact-finding are also finding facts that the collision was caused by something or someone. Inevitably this cause falls into someone’s lap who may be held to account.
And here lies the difference between developing a probe of the Martian planet and reconstructing a motor vehicle collision. Those NASA scientists are rarely placed in a position of finding fault, they just want to build something that will reach the planet successfully. Although their mission is very complex and difficult, they overcome their difficulties because they are motivated to find the correct solution. The Integrity of their effect rarely needs to be questioned.
Yet in the realm of motor vehicle collision reconstruction the motivation is far different. Immediately after a collision occurs police are sent in to close down the site. While it is said that this is needed to protect the evidence, the reality is that these closures can be used to hide the evidence from wide public knowledge. This is evidenced by the fact that journalists who provide an essential service of informing the public on important issues, are often prevented from coming close enough to a collision site to document even rudimentary facts. In past years when insurers were more inclined to use independent engineers and reconstructionsts there was a degree of checks and balances because additional investigations were carried out. This gave some assurance that evidence could not be tampered with. But when police are the only ones who document the evidence the potential of misdeeds is increased. While police unions, police administration, police boards and SIUs should have good reasons to work together to remove bad cops this theory falls short in practice. Integrity does not just magically appear when a person puts on a police uniform, it must be developed and maintained through correct police policy which includes an unbiased assessment of an individual officer’s performance.
Once the police reconstruction is complete other individuals and agencies become involved. In more complex incidents some of these may be government transportation experts and manufacturer representatives. Sometimes they may be insurance representatives and experts, or experts working for a plaintiff and their personal lawyer. In all these instances Integrity is in jeopardy when the purpose of these inquiries is to gain an advantage for that entity’s protection, monetary gain, or other hidden agendas.
Inevitably the results of some reconstructions end up before the criminal and civil courts. Prosecutors and their experts in criminal trials are no less motivated to twist the facts than are the defendants, their lawyers and their experts. One cannot paint all lawyers with the same brush but it is not without reason that in the back alleys in downtown London, Ontario there is a very large and beautiful mural painting of the words “The Honest Lawyer” with painted flames coming up and over those words like a barbeque from hell. While there are many legitimate plaintiffs whose cases need the reasonable judgment of an honest trial, almost everyone is aware of lawyers and their clients whose wealth has come from winning the equivalent of a courtroom lottery. Integrity stops when money flows.
Even in the highest courts Integrity is jeopardized when politicians appoint judges solely because they are friends or who can be relied upon to make judgments based on some political or ideological agenda. It is sometimes said that we need more dumb judges because we have too many smart ones. By that what is meant is that the courts do not need egotists who already know what happened in a case before they have heard the evidence. As an example, in a very old criminal trial involving a fatal collision, the judge ignored the expert testimony about the travel direction of the two vehicles claiming “It is obvious which direction they were travelling just by looking at their pointing angles and final rest positions”. Even when lawyers from both sides of the case recognized his error and wanted to annul the matter the judge would not hear of it. It finally took a court of appeal to stop the injustice. The truly admirable judges are willing to admit they have not grasped all the issues and are willing to ask questions until they have a clear understanding. That may not move then up to become members of higher courts but Integrity matters more to them than the prestige of higher office.
Detail, Quality of Thought and Integrity have always been key cornerstones to collision reconstruction. When one stone is missing or flawed one can see how even the most impressive efforts can be for nothing. But when all are present and well placed they enable the stability of great accomplishments well beyond collision reconstruction itself.
Public Deserves Honesty in Collision Reporting
Local news media have reported on an OPP new release claiming that Middlesex County Roads in the Province of Ontario are more dangerous and that fatalities are on the increase. Some of the reported statistics include the fact that in the past 10 years, 115 people died on Middlesex County Roads under OPP jurisdiction. This was claimed to be the third highest in Ontario, behind a region in Toronto and another in Burlington. But what do these numbers really mean. Have they been adjusted for the populations within the compared regions? Has the mix of rural versus urban travel been taken into account in that comparison? Could the OPP conclusion about Middlesex County roads stand up to a rigorous statistical analysis? In 1988 there were 36 fatal collisions in Middlesex County and if this number was multiplied by 10 it would be 360, which is about three times as many as the 115 reported in the current news release. So does that mean that we are doing tremendously well? In fact, fatalities have been dropping steadily since their height in the years 1973-4. In 1973 alone 1959 persons were killed in that single year. This is the kind of context that is needed to allow the public to understand singular statistics like 115 deaths.
The total number of deaths on OPP-patrolled roads was reported to be 2,675 in the past ten years. Again, why is this statistic provided without any context? What is that number supposed to mean to the average citizen who may have no idea whether 2,675 deaths is a lot, or very little. Certainly that many deaths seems a lot but how do they compare to the number of deaths in the previous 10 years? It would be far more effective if the OPP explained how the number of fatalities have been changing in their jurisdictions over the years and what factors have led to those changes.
In another statistic, it was reported that five persons died in Middlesex County crashes so far in 2020. This statistic included parts of the Highway 401 and 402. One news outlet reported that this was “an increase of 67 per cent over 2019”. But clearly an increase from 3 collisions to 5 collisions does not provide a reason to suggest to the public that a tremendous increase has occurred.
Another news outlet reported that, as of May 4, 71 people have died in fatal collisions on OPP-patrolled roads in 2020, compared to just 61 in 2019. But how much variance exists in these numbers from year to year? If the numbers jump up and down because they represent a small sample then the increase of 10 additional fatalities could simply demonstrate the natural fluctuation of such data. The public has no way of accessing the OPP’s data to evaluate where their reported numbers stand in the broader picture.
In another statistic “Inattentive related deaths” were reported to be up by 300%, but then it was added that the total of this number was only 12 deaths for 2020.
An OPP spokesperson was quoted as stating: “It shows the risk to our community and to those who use our roadways”. But reporting that large changes have occurred in percentages without informing the public that those percentages are based on very small numbers of collisions distorts reality. Therefore it does not provide a true indication of the risk to the public.
In contrast to these disturbing statistics another news outlet provided very different data. This outlet indicated that:
“According to West Region OPP, while fatal crashes have rison 9.5 per cent since the beginning of 2020, personal injuries are down 29 per cent and property damage has dropped by 21 per cent. West Region OPP has recorded a 44.5 per cent drop in collisions in their area between March 17 – the day Ontario declared a state of emergency – and May 4, from the same period a year ago. For all OPP-patrolled roads provincewide, crashes are down 56 per cent from a year ago.”
So what is the public to believe? Why would fatalities be increasing while overall collisions have been decreasing? Is that really what has been going on? Is it possible that the small number of fatal collisions fluctuate more than the much larger numbers of Personal Injury and Property Damage collisions? And therefore we are simply seeing a sign of this natural fluctuation? Is it possible that overall, the collision risk is lower rather than higher in 2020 because of the Covid-19 pandemic? Certainly that possibility is not difficult to imagine. But we need a solid and honest appraisal of these numbers from those who have access to the full dataset and are familiar with its meaning.
Historically objective data has been made available by the Ontario Ministry of Transportation (MTO) in their Annual Reports. But for an unexplained reason those reports have stopped being prepared. The last one was in 2016. Since then only general overviews have been provided for 2017 and 2018 and nothing at all has been published since 2018. The 2017 and 2018 overviews contain this cautionary note:
“The following tables were created using the preliminary fatality and injury data from the 2018 Ontario Collision Database. Final numbers will vary.”
But when will the final numbers come? We are two and a half years past the end of the year 2017, should it really take this long to inform the public about incidents that cause so many deaths and injuries?
The public could obtain some objective facts by examining the “Synopsis” portion of the collision facts reported by the MTO. These tables are shown below for the years 2018 (Preliminary Data), 2016 (Last full annual report) and 2011 (five years since the fast full report).
The above tables provide the following basic information about historical fatalities in Ontario:
Fatal Collisions: 2011 = 486, 2016 = 527, 2018 = 531
Persons Killed: 2011 = 498, 2016 = 579, 2018 = 578
Personal Injury Collisions: 2011 = 44076, 2016 = 39685, 2018 = 35215
While the officially-reported number of personal injury collisions have fallen, the numbers of fatal collisions and fatalities have risen. But there is no information about how these statistics have changed since 2018, or even if the 2018 preliminary data can be relied upon.
While there is less opportunity to distort the statistics regarding fatal collisions that is not so for Personal Injury collisions. Since the vast majority of such collisions are made up of minor injuries their numbers can be manipulated if minor injuries become less reported. For example so soft tissue injuries such as neck and back strains could easily be removed from the numbers if police are told to document them using different procedures.
Property Damage collisions used to be reported in the Annual Reports but that is no longer the case. Yet Property Damage collisions far outnumber Personal Injury collisions, as shown in the above tables for 2011 and 2016. A comparison between Personal Injury and Property Damage collisions is highlighted below:
Personal Injury: 2011 = 44076, 2016 = 39685
Property Damage: 2011 = 132497, 2016 = 168192
A similar problem exists with Property Damage collisions as with Personal Injury collisions. The vast majority of Property Damage collisions are of a low severity and those are easily left unreported. The Province of Ontario uses impercise instructions for how such collisions should be reported by using a monetary threshold which can be easily manipulated to permit less reporting.
While the public is provided with various collision statistics caution and a critical eye is needed to keep a lookout for instances where those numbers may be used to confuse an issue.
In the end, the public is not involved in the day to day details of collision occurrence. They must rely on police, the Ontario government and news media to organize and report that data so it is not distorted or exaggerated. When that is done properly the public gains trust in this important information. It is the public’s trust and cooperation that is greatly needed if changes are to occur in road safety that reduce the numbers and severity of these tragic events.
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